A growing majority of Ukrainian refugees in the Netherlands are no longer planning to return home, even if the war ends and conditions become safe, according to new research
published by the Dutch justice ministry’s research institute, WODC.
The findings, drawn from the second phase of a long-term panel study tracking Ukrainian refugees in the Netherlands, suggest that intentions to settle permanently are strengthening as the conflict continues.
Among those surveyed, 43% said they would choose to remain in the Netherlands even if Ukraine became safe again. Another 37% said they were uncertain about returning, while only 21% said they definitely planned to go back.
Around 134,000 Ukrainians are currently registered as refugees in the Netherlands.
The study also found growing interest in long-term integration. Three-quarters of respondents said they would apply for Dutch citizenship if given the opportunity, up from 68% when the same group was surveyed two years ago.
Researchers noted a marked shift among refugees already considering a longer stay. Within the group that planned to remain in the Netherlands for at least the next two years, the proportion saying they would not return to Ukraine rose from 31% in 2023 to 50% in 2025.
Younger refugees and workers more likely to stay
The research indicates that younger Ukrainians and those employed in the Netherlands are the most inclined to build a future in the country.
More than half — 51% — of refugees who arrived between the ages of 17 and 26 said they would not return to Ukraine even if security improved. Among refugees aged 67 and older, that figure fell to 17%.
Employment also appeared to influence long-term plans. Nearly half of working Ukrainians surveyed, 47%, said they did not intend to return, compared with 35% of those without jobs.
Family ties were another key factor. Refugees whose partners were living in the Netherlands were significantly more likely to want to stay than those whose partners remained in Ukraine.
For refugees still hoping to return, safety in their home regions remained the decisive concern. Many also cited emotional ties to Ukraine and the presence of family and friends there.
Uncertainty over future status
The findings present a challenge for Dutch government policy, which has largely focused on supporting the eventual voluntary return of Ukrainian refugees.
Ukrainians in the Netherlands are currently protected under the European Union’s Temporary Protection Directive, which grants access to housing, healthcare, education, work and study rights. The scheme is scheduled to expire on 5 March 2027.
Under plans announced by the Dutch cabinet in November, refugees would then transition to a three-year temporary residence permit and begin contributing to rent and health insurance costs under the same conditions as other residents.
Researchers warned that uncertainty about long-term residency remains widespread. More than half of respondents said they frequently worry about whether they will be allowed to stay in the Netherlands.
According to the report, greater clarity from the government could help refugees make long-term decisions, including whether to invest more heavily in learning Dutch and integrating into society. Photo by Silar, Wikimedia commons.