France’s public debt is expected to climb to a historic 119.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026 and rise further to 121.7% next year, according to new projections from

the French Finance Ministry.

The figures, submitted to France’s High Council of Public Finances as part of the assessment of the government’s budget plans, underline the continued deterioration of the country’s fiscal position. France’s debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 115.7% in 2025, while it remained below 100% in 2019. 

The government also expects France to record a budget deficit equivalent to 5.4% of GDP this year. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has previously indicated that the 2026 deficit should remain below 5.5%.

With public finances under growing pressure, the government is preparing a €54 billion savings programme for the 2027 budget. The measures are intended to slow the growth of the deficit and put the country’s debt trajectory on a more sustainable path.

However, implementing the proposed savings will be politically difficult. The government faces a deeply divided parliament, while households continue to express concerns about the cost of living. The scale of the planned reductions is expected to make the 2027 budget negotiations particularly challenging.

Financial markets have also shown increasing concern about France’s fiscal outlook. On Friday, the premium investors demanded to hold French government bonds rather than German debt rose above one percentage point for the first time since the eurozone debt crisis. The widening spread reflects heightened market sensitivity to France’s debt levels, borrowing requirements and political uncertainty. 

The government’s task is complicated further by weak economic growth. The Bank of France recently reduced its 2026 growth forecast to 0.4%, citing subdued domestic demand and cautious business investment. 

French authorities have acknowledged the need for significant fiscal adjustment. A government-commissioned expert report published in July warned that, without additional measures, the public deficit could deteriorate further and public debt could exceed 130% of GDP by 2030. 

The worsening debt outlook comes as France prepares its 2027 budget and approaches the next presidential election, placing public finances at the centre of an increasingly difficult economic and political debate. Photo by Yann Caradec from Paris, France, Wikimedia commons.