Socialist candidate António José Seguro has edged into first place in Portugal’s increasingly competitive presidential election, just days before voters head to the polls on Sunday,

18 January.

According to the latest opinion poll by Pitagórica, conducted for JN, TSF, TVI and CNN, Seguro now leads a closely packed field with 22.9% of declared voting intentions. He is followed closely by João Cotrim de Figueiredo of the Liberal Initiative (IL) on 21.1%, and André Ventura, leader of the far-right Chega party, on 19.7%.

The figures confirm that the race remains wide open, with the three leading candidates separated by little more than three percentage points in what is shaping up to be one of the most tightly fought presidential contests since Portugal’s return to democracy.

Once considered a front-runner, Admiral Henrique Gouveia e Melo has lost momentum, falling to 16.3% in the latest poll. Meanwhile, Social Democratic Party (PSD) candidate Luís Marques Mendes has slipped further to 14%, marking his weakest showing since polling for the election began.

Despite moving into the lead, Seguro’s position remains far from secure. The margin between the top three candidates lies well within the poll’s margin of error, meaning Cotrim de Figueiredo and Ventura still retain a statistical chance of finishing first and securing a place in the second round.

Gouveia e Melo has now dropped out of the technical tie with Seguro, but analysts note that he still retains an outside chance of regaining ground in the final days of the campaign.

Other candidates remain well behind the leading pack. Catarina Martins of the Left Bloc, António Filipe of the Communist Party, Jorge Pinto of Livre and independent candidate and musician Manuel João Vieira continue to register residual support, with only minor day-to-day fluctuations.

With the first round fast approaching and no clear front-runner guaranteed a runoff spot, the final outcome is likely to hinge on last-minute shifts among undecided voters and turnout on election day. Photo by Agencia LUSA, Wikimedia commons.